Effects of Climate Change in the Geographical Distribution of Species in the Rio Negro Sub-Basin

Resumo

As in the case of human systems, biodiversity can be affected by climate change and climate variability. The effect takes places through variations in temperature and precipitation expressed in space, which change habitat conditions, and determine, thereby, the distribution of species. In this sense, an analysis of climate change impacts on the distribution of two species in the Rio Negro basin was made, specifically in the reserve areas of the municipality of Novo Airão-Amazonas, by applying climate change scenarios developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The mapping was carried out for species of economic and environmental importance in tropical forest ecosystems: Gymnotus Carapo (Sarapó) and Cichla sp. (Tucunaré); comparing its current potential distribution with scenarios projections for 2050 and 2070, for the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5. This goal was achieved by applying MaxEnt free software, which models geographic species distribution using only local presence data and bioclimatic variables associated with each of these points of presence.